News

Jeff Gundlach Is Taking A Brian Fantana Approach To Technical Analysis

I’ve been over this before, but I think I need to reiterate it. Bond king for the post-Gross world, exposer of WSJ conspiracies, and man who showed up at Sohn dressed in a Jack Nicholson Joker costume, Jeff Gundlach, is never wrong. If you think back to last summer (when Jeff similarly channeled Nicholson by axing his way into the Twitterverse, Jack Torrance style, as the terrified financial news media cowered in the corner clutching a small kitchen knife like Shelley Duvall), you’ll recall that the DoubleLine boss chose @TruthGundlach as his social media handle. See, Jeff was sick and tired of just sitting idly by while the rest of us idiots fumbled around in the dark in search of “truth” and it occurred to him that when it comes to fighting “fake news” (and especially fake Gundlach news,...

One Bank Discovers A ‘Staggering’ Stat Amid Italian Bond Selloff

Yeah, so over the weekend, in a kind of rambling piece penned while attempting to block out the noise from a literal outdoor aerobics class that convened around me unexpectedly (I sometimes write from a picnic table at a pavilion down by a local pier and unbeknownst to me, one local fitness instructor has decided that this tourist season, she’s going to commandeer that pavilion for her classes, presumably because it has a nice ocean view), I talked about the Italian “problem” in the context of ECB CSPP. You can read that linked post for yourself, so I won’t rehash the whole thing, but one of the points I made was that given the representation of Italian credits in € IG and € HY, and given the fact that ECB corporate bond purchases have served to prevent the market from pricing in credit ri...

Analyst: Shake Shack Is Doing Well For Itself, But Maybe Just A Little Too Well…Like Seriously, It’s Just Burgers

By m01229 from USA (Shake Shack burger and fries) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons Don’t look now but Shake Shack has been one of the hottest stocks of early 2019, growing 32.72% since the beginning of the year. What’s not to love about Shake Shack? It’s to Steak & Shake what Chik-Fil-A is to KFC, but without the intrinsic homophobia. So it makes you wonder: is Shake Shack doing a little too well for itself? After all, it’s not In N’ Out. Longbow Research suggests that prospective Shake Shack Investors wait till the stock takes a little dip before they buy any shares in the hot stock. Specifically, they downgraded their target purchase price from $54 to $49 after Shake Shack’s stock price eclipsed their original target price. Longbow still remains opportunistic about a potential decl...

Justice Department Suspects Criminals Have Infiltrated Otherwise Completely Above-Board Cryptocurrency Market

All that digital gold you’ve got squirreled safely away in one of Wences Casares’ amputated-limb-proof, mountainside decommissioned, military bunkers is worth roughly 11% less than it was to start the week, and that’s thanks in no small part to the Justice Department which, in conjunction with the CFTC, is looking into possible manipulation in the cryptocurrency market. Bloomberg reported the investigation on Thursday. Apparently, the DoJ is concerned about spoofing and wash trades in Bitcoin, Ethereum and various other iterations of what are, at the end of the day, make-believe assets. This is of course just the latest example of regulators and law enforcement agencies attempting to root out possible illegality in the cryptocurrency market and it’s patently absurd for all kinds of reasons...

Guy Who Shot Car Into Space While Customers Waited For Cars They Already Paid For Wants To Rank The Media’s Credibility

You can’t make this up. The most famous overpromiser/under-deliverer in American manufacturing history has officially decided that he will only accept the kind of fawning press coverage afforded to young white dudes on the ascent inside the media bubble of Silicon Valley. Elon Musk – who is sitting on a massive production backlog of luxury electric cars that customers have paid for while he builds space rockets, high speed tunnels, solar panels and fucking flamethrowers – has torn a page out of the “Fake News” handbook and declared his own version of war on the American free press. In his latest Twitter rant, Musk took aim at “The Media” for providing negative coverage to Tesla, his car company that has consistently failed to make cars. Quoth the Elon: The holier-than-thou hypocrisy of big...

Opening Bell 3.24.18

Jon Corzine’s Wall Street Comeback in Jeopardy So Far as Hedge Fund Attracts Trickle [Fox Business] Corzine, according to potential investors, provided his trading records for the past year, when he managed his own money, and they are said to be impressive. What was less than impressive, investors tell FOX Business, was some of the risk parameters described in the sales document. United CEO Grilled Over NRA Discount, Worker’s Rights At Annual Meeting [Reuters] Asked about United’s decision to sever ties with the National Rifle Association (NRA) in the wake of the recent U.S. high school shooting in Parkland, Florida, Chief Executive Oscar Munoz said the decision was reached largely in response to a United pilot’s daughter who was killed in the massacre. Apple Teams up With Volkswagen to Ma...

Fed Minutes: FOMC Says Inflation Overshoot ‘Could Be Helpful’

Ok, show of hands: who’s excited about the May Fed minutes? Crowd full of full pockets, we suppose (that’s a Brick reference). Be that as it may (get it? “may”), it’s possible that they’ll be something worth extracting here. Specifically, traders will parse these for clues as to whether the FOMC is truly prepared to tolerate a meaningful inflation overshoot in light of the “symmetric” language from the May statement. This comes a week after 10Y yields hit their highest levels since 2011 and real yields bumped up against the taper tantrum peak. One thing worth noting there is that when it comes to rates vol., it’s the curve that matters, not necessarily some “magic” level on 10s. Here’s BNP: The markets are focused on the 10y UST, which finally closed through 3% on 15 May and is at 3.10% at...

The Yoga Mom And Guilty Husband Index Is Way Up Today

Trump’s flip and flopping over the details of the China trade deal have the market looking a little lackluster as the day has progressed, but there are a few diamonds in the rough. Literally. Guilty husbands everywhere are “delighted” to learn that the biggest mover of the day is Tiffany & Co. After they were able to roll out Q1 earning that surprised many, the luxury brand is trading at $121.91, which is a 19.24% increase from yesterdays closing price of $102.23. The weather has taken a toll on many retailers this year, but what the weather can’t stop is a need to say “Sorry” via overtly expensive baubles. American sales contributed to a large part of the growth in sales, but more of it came from the sales in the Asia-Pacific region. The company’s sales in the Americas, its biggest ma...

Requiem For A Meme: 3 Charts

Remember the “Goldilocks” meme? Well it might be time for a requiem. For the past several months, the market has been prone to questioning the viability of the “Goldilocks” combination of synchronous global growth and well-anchored inflation that served to underpin and perpetuate the low vol. regime. Both pillars are now at risk. The inflation narrative is gathering steam, especially in the U.S., where the combination of fiscal stimulus and late-cycle dynamics have made market participants hyper-sensitive to nascent signs of price pressures. Rising crude prices aren’t helping. Meanwhile, incoming data continues to suggest the European economy may have peaked in Q1, with Wednesday’s PMI prints being just the latest in a series of disappointments. Trump’s “America first” policy is contributi...

Turkey Now Less Credit Worthy Than Senegal Amid Ongoing Currency Crisis … Is What A ‘Gulenist Tool’ Would Say

Listen, it is imperative that you understand something and that something is this: Turkish President, Kurd hunter extraordinaire and world-renowned rates strategist, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, knows what he’s doing, ok? Sure, there’s a lot of market speculation that maybe his theories about interest rates and FX and inflation are indicative of his generalized penchant for lunacy and yes, there are some folks out there who think it would be an absolutely terrible idea for him to go through with the promise he made last week when he told a shocked Bloomberg anchor that he’s going to basically name himself central bank head, but that’s all nonsense. It’s just jealous foreigners trying to sow doubt and confusion and otherwise sully his sterling reputation. Or worse, it’s evidence the firms that are...

Craig Carton Pleads Stupidity, And Who Are We To Argue?

Craig Carton’s intellectual deficiencies were readily apparent to anyone whose car radio was stuck on WFAN in New York on weekday mornings before his untimely arrest in September on charges of running a ticket-scalping Ponzi scheme at the expense of an allegedly well-run hedge fund. Presumably, his lawyers are preparing transcripts of some of his choicer takes on the Mets and Jets to fortify their argument that he should not be facing those charges on account of those intellectual deficiencies. “The Indictment is devoid of any allegations that Mr. Carton possessed ‘culpable intent’ at the time the Hedge Fund established the loan facility for approximately $4.6 million in the ticket resale business on December 8, 2016,” reads the court document. “The Government has failed to put forth any a...

Winter Came And Appears to Be Sticking Around J.C. Penney

J.C. Penney can attribute its low sales during Q1 to cold weather, but as sunshine spreads across the East Coast, a rain/hail/snow cloud continues to loom over the once great department store. Online retail sales have been hacking away at their profits for months, but a Tyson-esque blow was delivered as Lowe’s came in hot this morning with a haymaker right to the face of J.C. Penney by announcing they had ripped CEO, Marvin Ellison, from the near-lifeless body of the department store. J.C. Penney Co. slumped after Chief Executive Officer Marvin Ellison abruptly resigned to take the top job at home-improvement retailer Lowe’s Cos. J.C. Penney, the Derrick Rose of department stores, has undergone plenty of change in an attempt to fill their former shell, but Ellison’s departure is not lookin...