You’ll recall that the title of our weekly wrap last week was “Different Week, Same Joke.”
Here’s what we said last Friday:
Another week and the same joke continues to apply: this was the worst week for the Trump administration since last week.
Well this week easily eclipsed last week as the craziest 5-day stretch yet for Trump and for an administration that has careened completely off the tracks. It was also a terrible week for stocks. Specifically, this was the worst week for the Nasdaq since January 2016.
Let’s just call it minus 1,500 on the Dow since the immediate knee-jerk spike post-Fed:
VIX highest since March 2:
Hide the women and children.
Since Monday, Trump:
Then, in a fitting end to a characteristically insane week, he held a press conference before signing the bill that he initially threatened to veto and used that press conference to talk up America’s military in a comically absurd rant the highlights of which include the following:
“Total stealth. They’re hard to find, they’re hard to see, therefore they’re hard to beat. It’s very tough to beat a plane when you can’t see it.” pic.twitter.com/yXBePQiOtD
— Dave Brown (@dave_brown24) March 23, 2018
Again – crazy. Completely, and totally crazy. No one has used that kind of language to talk about America’s nuclear arsenal since the goddamn Cold War.
Speaking of Trump and funny/ridiculous shit he’s said… the 200-DMA is your Frederick Douglass:
The 200-day moving average is an example of something that’s done an amazing job and is getting recognized more and more pic.twitter.com/6CL3Fqmn1F
— Luke Kawa (@LJKawa) March 23, 2018
First weekly decline in five for the dollar:
10Y yields down markedly from the post-Fed reaction:
Worst week for Facebook since July 2012:
Dastardly week for banks:
IG credit at YTD wides (widest since September, actually):
IG CDS blowing out in Europe (60bps for the first time since last summer) and Xover widest in a year (give or take):
Horrible week for European banks:
Lowest in over a year for European stocks more broadly:
Oil capped off a good week with sharp gains on Friday. Comments from Al-Falih (who seems to think we need more price gains) helped and some folks are suggesting there’s a “Bolton premium” being priced in.
“It seems to be a bubbling cauldron again in the Middle East,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC said on Friday, adding that “that’s really helping to juice the geopolitical risk premium and the market’s gotten more volatile as a result”
FBR isn’t buying it. “John Bolton’s arrival as National Security Adviser, H.R. McMaster’s departure, and Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State will probably have only a limited impact on oil markets in the short-term,” Benjamin Salisbury wrote today, before acknowledging that while Bolton is a critic of the Iran nuclear deal, the impact is likely to be “muted” by a lack of international coordination.
RBC’s Helima Croft sees things a little differently, noting that Bolton is “a material risk” for crude, given his hawkishness. “While the market may take this development in stride, a more confrontational foreign policy could seriously test the assumption that U.S. shale can solve any global supply disruption”, Croft continued.
WTI near two-month highs:
USDJPY below 105 is a testament to the palpable angst:
Not a great week mainland Chinese shares:
Second-worst week for the SHCOMP since April 2016:
As the President would say/ask:
@realDonaldTrump “how’s your 401k doing?”
— Walter White (@heisenbergrpt) March 23, 2018